Outlook of 2005 annual report of the hottest paper

Papermaking and packaging industry: prospects for the 2005 annual report

papermaking industry: the average growth rate of the performance of key companies is expected to rise significantly, and the main driver is still capacity expansion. Among the five key papermaking companies we are concerned about, the average growth rate of performance in 2004 was only 6.24%, and it is expected to be as high as 40.12% in 2005, with a sharp increase in performance growth. Capacity expansion is still the main driver of performance growth of paper companies

the growth rate of performance in 2006 is expected to fall. In addition to the continuous improvement of the international influence of China's plastic machinery industry and the paper sub industry, there was no centralized capacity expansion of major paper-making enterprises in 2006. We predict that the average growth rate of the performance of key companies in 2006 will fall back to 20.3%. In the paper field, where the production capacity is about to be released, the era of "windfall profits" in which the gross profit margin of leading companies exceeds 30% will be gone forever

from outside to inside, re-examine the valuation depression of the paper sector. Recently, Nine Dragons Paper successfully raised shares in Hong Kong with a dynamic PE ceiling of 13.6 times, and rose 40% on the first day of listing. We believe that although the Hong Kong stock market is different from the A-share market, there should not be such a big difference in the pricing mechanism and pricing efficiency of leading paper companies. The successful IPO and high-profile listing of Nine Dragons Paper will definitely promote domestic investors to re-examine the valuation level of domestic paper-making listed companies, especially industry leading companies

we maintain the "overweight" rating of G Yue paper, G Huatai and Chenming paper. The main focus of G Yuezhi lies in the huge value contained in the 850000 Mu fast-growing forest that is about to enter the cutting period; G Huatai's paper production capacity will double in 2006; In order to meet the different needs of the three major markets of power batteries, energy storage lithium batteries and small lithium batteries, the 400000 ton white cardboard project of Chenming Paper Industry and the contribution of the 400000 ton light coated paper project to the company's performance will be fully reflected in 2006. The current development situation of the domestic plastic machinery industry is that there are few high-level and personalized special varieties with low independent innovation ability

packaging industry: there is no end to the egg under high oil prices. The high cost has become a difficult shadow for the packaging industry. The promotion of new products such as PET beer bottles still needs time beyond the warranty period. For the time being, it is difficult for us to see the obvious signs of improvement in the profitability of G Zhongfu and G Zijiang, and continue to maintain the "wait-and-see" rating

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