The hottest internal combustion engine made a shar

2022-08-23
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The internal combustion engine industry experienced a sharp decline in the first half of this year and is expected to rise in August

Guide: the industry trend has experienced a sharp decline. The data show that the total output of the internal combustion engine industry in the first half of this year was 217 million kW, an increase of 20.96% year-on-year; The sales volume was 29.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.75%; The profit was 2.127 billion yuan when the time came to 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 27.96%. Looking at this part of the data alone, it is easy to have the illusion that the situation is very good

the industry trend has taken a sharp turn for the worse

data show that the total output of the internal combustion engine industry in the first half of this year was 217 million KW, an increase of 20.96% year-on-year; The sales volume was 29.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.75%; The profit was 2.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.96%. Looking at this part of the data alone, it is easy to have the illusion that the situation is very good. In fact, there is another reason. The first half of last year was when SARS was raging, so this year-on-year data is also atypical. "Year on year growth can explain some problems, but it masks others."

what problems are covered up

please look at the following set of data: the national internal combustion engine output in April was 43.1 million KW, a decrease of 5.15 million KW compared with March, a decrease of 10. The main performance indicators of the product (such as breaking strength, durability, breaking strain, modulus, etc.) can be confirmed through experiments 67%; The output in May was 30.9 million KW, a decrease of 12.2 million KW from April, a decrease of 28.31%; The output in June was 28.72 million KW, 2.18 million KW less than that in May, a decrease of 7%

it is not difficult to see that after the rapid development of SARS last year, the internal combustion engine industry has begun to take a sharp turn and fall to the bottom

as a rule, April and may should be the peak season of the internal combustion engine industry, but this year there was an abnormal phenomenon that the peak season was not prosperous. In the months after the Spring Festival, the output and efficiency of most enterprises have not increased, but decreased month by month, which is rare in recent years. Moreover, according to the reflection of some backbone enterprises, there is no big turnaround in the market at present, because at present, burning will also cause environmental pollution, which has entered the off-season, and the decline is more difficult to reverse

the market message of declining production is that demand is not strong

macro-control is the main reason

"the impact of macro-control has played a great role." Nihongjie analyzed the reasons

in recent years, the development of China's internal combustion engine industry mainly benefits from the rapid development of automobiles, especially trucks, and construction machinery. However, since April this year, the state has taken a series of macro-control measures to tighten monetary policy and reduce capital construction investment; The people's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently announced the measures for the administration of auto loans, which greatly raised the threshold for consumers to buy cars with loans; Then, on July 1 this year, the state began to implement the new road traffic safety law, and seven ministries and commissions jointly issued regulations on the management of roads for over limit transport vehicles. The result of all these policies is that the rapid development of the automobile market has ended and the construction machinery market has also shrunk. The internal combustion engine bears the brunt of the cold air parts market in the whole vehicle market

the current difficulties faced by the internal combustion engine industry are not only the sharp decline in production and sales, but also the shrinking profit space. It can also be used as an intermediate product for real-time graphic dynamic switching in the test, which increases the expenditure and reduces the profit of the internal combustion engine, and the two ends are squeezed

on the one hand, cars are moving away from the era of huge profits, and a new round of price reduction is rolling up. Automobile manufacturers have repeatedly asked internal combustion engine manufacturers to reduce prices; On the other hand, the rising prices of steel, non-ferrous metals, fuel oil and transportation have greatly increased the manufacturing costs and supporting procurement costs of enterprises

taking fuel as an example, each internal combustion engine has to be tested for about 1 hour before leaving the factory. The increase in fuel cost of this program alone is not a small number

most of the products produced by working overtime at the beginning of the year can only be stacked in the warehouse as overstocked products, and the implementation of the new environmental protection standard is even worse for those overstocked internal combustion engines with Euro I emission standards

statistics also show that the import and export deficit of internal combustion engines and accessories in China was huge in the first half of this year. The deficit of the complete machine and accessories reached US $636 million and US $661 million respectively

it is expected to get out of the trough in August

from this point of view, enterprises must take the road of high technology if they want to pull back the decline

today's automotive internal combustion engine is already a high-tech product, and products with low scientific and technological content are increasingly untenable. It is understood that in the recent development plan of the automobile industry launched by the state, it is proposed to vigorously develop the large-scale production technology of key parts and components of cars, mini cars and light vehicles. Small displacement high-performance gasoline engines, 4~7-liter medium and heavy-duty diesel engines and 12 liter high-power heavy-duty diesel engines and key parts are the focus of support

at the same time, the national investment in agriculture is also gradually increasing. It can be predicted that with the increase of investment, the agricultural machinery industry will have a lot of room to rise, which is undoubtedly good news for its supporting internal combustion engine

from a macro perspective, in order to prevent a "hard landing" of the economy, the state's regulatory policies will be tightened and loosened in the second half of the year, and investment in related industries will increase, while driving the decline of internal combustion engines to slow down

it is predicted that the whole industry will usher in a new growth cycle from August

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