Analysis on relevant policies of domestic rubber i

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Analysis of relevant policies of domestic rubber industry in 2009

analysis of policy factors has always been one of the important means for us to analyze the trend of commodity market. With China's accession to the WTO and integration into the world economic integration, the country's policy-making ideas and operation methods tend to be mature. Therefore, paying attention to the formulation and trend of policies is of great help to grasp the long-term price of natural rubber

I. supply related policies

1. National reserve policy

National Reserve, as a policy that has always been maintained in China's transformation from a planned economic system to a market economic system, has always attracted the attention of all parties. National reserves play a very important role in stabilizing production and prices. The implementation of this policy is mainly through the collection and storage and release of storage, that is, the collection and storage at low prices and the release and storage at high prices. In terms of natural rubber, China's reserve operation is relatively easy to cause small piston damage and oil leakage, which is rarely reported. However, in the second half of 2008, the high-profile behavior of the State Reserve attracted the active attention of all parties in the market. At that time, natural rubber plummeted from more than 20000 yuan to less than 10000 yuan in a short time, which had a huge impact on the agricultural reclamation system. In order to stabilize production and protect the interests of rubber farmers, the state has decisively taken the action of collection and storage. According to the national rubber reserve agreement signed by the State Material Reserve Bureau, Hainan agricultural reclamation and Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation, 105000 tons of rubber collection and storage plan will be completed within 6 months, including 55000 tons of collection and storage obtained by Hainan agricultural reclamation and 50000 tons of Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation. The first batch of natural rubber was collected and stored by 55000 tons in the two reclamation areas before April 18, including 25000 tons in Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation and 30000 tons in Hainan agricultural reclamation. The collection and storage price was 14600 yuan/ton. In June, the two reclamation areas will deliver and store another 50000 tons. In addition, according to the market environment, if the rubber price is at a low point, the national reserve bureau is willing to increase the purchase and storage of natural rubber as a strategic reserve in the second half of 2009. From the perspective of specific policies for purchase and storage, this has formed an effective support for domestic natural rubber spot. Therefore, Haijiao group said that the national collection and storage plan will play a positive role in stabilizing the rubber market and the rubber industry, as well as the operation of rubber production enterprises and the income increase of rubber farmers. As the output was not large in the months after the cut, the national reserve almost took away the new resources, which greatly eased the pressure on the domestic spot market

2. International Rubber union

the international rubber union is an organization for the supply of natural rubber raw materials composed of several major rubber producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia at the end of 2003. Its purpose is to maintain the stability of natural rubber prices and protect the economic interests of major producing countries. Its starting point is similar to OPEC, the world's famous alliance of crude oil producers. The trend of the organization will have a significant impact on the supply and demand of international natural rubber and the change of international price trend, and then have a significant effect on the trend of domestic Shanghai rubber

members of the international rubber union account for most of the global supply of natural rubber, of which Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia account for more than 65% of the global production of natural rubber. It can be seen that its policy behavior has a very obvious impact on the market. But the effect depends on the implementation of the measures. As the output and export volume of natural rubber in the three countries are different, and the market share of each country in the international rubber market is also different, as the international rubber price continues to rise, whether countries can adhere to the established alliance agreement is sometimes questioned by the market. After all, Thailand once withdrew from the rubber production reduction plan

since the second half of 2008, due to the sharp decline in international rubber prices, the market operation of the international rubber alliance has been significantly strengthened. The organization began to coordinate and implement production reduction and export agreements at the end of 2008. In December, 2008, the organization agreed to reduce the supply of 915000 tons in 2009 to support the rubber price. According to the agreement, Thailand will reduce exports by 130000 tons in the first quarter of 2009, while Indonesia and Malaysia will reduce exports by 116000 and 22000 tons respectively. In principle, it should be used in nylon products. In 2008, IRCO member countries exported 5.9 million tons of natural rubber, accounting for 70% of the global output

II. Import and export policies

1. Import quotas and tariffs

before 2000, affected by border smuggling and other factors, the domestic natural rubber market was seriously affected, directly affecting the livelihood of rubber farmers in the main rubber producing areas of Hainan and Yunnan. Therefore, while vigorously cracking down on smuggling, the State implements the "two license" system for the import of natural rubber, that is, quota and license management. On December 11, 2001, after China officially joined the WTO, the minimum tariff rate for imports within the quota was 20% for standard rubber, 10% for latex, 25% for MFN tariff rates outside the quota, and 40% for general tariff rates within the scope of license management. Enterprises that import natural rubber with three supplies and one subsidy (processing with supplied materials, processing with supplied drawings and samples, assembly with supplied parts, and compensation trade) still implemented zero tariff rate when importing natural rubber. This tariff is still being implemented. The import quota of natural rubber is divided into class A and class B. Class a refers to the import quota of general trade (including the import of various trade modes except processing trade); Category B refers to import quotas of processing trade. The import quota of natural rubber in 2003 was 850000 tons. In accordance with the commitments made when China joined the WTO, China cancelled the import quota of natural rubber in 2004. At the same time, the import management right of Tianjiao will be released from January 1st, 2005

2. Compound glue policy

when talking about compound glue policy, we should first understand what compound glue is. Compound rubber refers to the rubber compounded by mixing with a small amount of stearic acid, styrene butadiene rubber, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, zinc oxide, carbon black or plasticizer, and the content of natural rubber is 95% - 99.5%. At present, China's natural rubber composite rubber imports are mainly Thailand and Malaysia, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam

in recent years, the general trade import proportion of China's standard rubber and cigarette rubber has decreased year by year, while the general trade of natural rubber composite rubber has increased significantly, from 16000 tons in 2001 to 482000 tons in 2007. According to the tariff adjustment process, the tariff level of cigarette and standard glue in 2009 has not been adjusted, and the composite glue agreement tax rate of other ASEAN countries will be cancelled except Vietnam, which remains at 5%. This will lead domestic factories to reduce import costs by importing a large number of composite rubber. In the first few months after the tariff reduction in 2009, the import growth found that there was a sharp increase in the problem of any accessories of the experimental machine. It is expected that accurate data can not be obtained; The price of benchmark rubber will be significantly affected by the spot of composite rubber

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